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Answer it before you open the explanation. On the exam there's no explanation, and you have about 77 seconds a question on RC and BT, 90 on TO and BI.
Across four hours a forecast read 10,200 / 10,000 / 10,100 / 9,700 MW against actuals of 10,000 / 10,200 / 9,800 / 10,000 MW. Its mean error and mean absolute error are
- A. 0 MW and 0 MW
- B. 250 MW and 250 MW
- C. 0 MW and 250 MW
- D. 125 MW and 500 MW
Show the answer
Answer C 0 MW and 250 MW
The signed errors, forecast minus actual, are +200, -200, +300 and -300 MW, which sum to zero, so the mean error - the bias - is 0 MW. The absolute errors are 200, 200, 300 and 300 MW and average 250 MW, so this forecast is unbiased but far from precise.
Reference: Load forecasting practice - forecast error and bias